关于海权与大国崛起问题的若干思考

Reflections on Seapower and the Rise of Great Powers

在西方国际关系理论中,关于海权与大国崛起关系的分析有以下两个值得注意的命题及其引发的问题:第一,关于海权是全球性大国的必要条件的命题。这一命题引发的问题是如何科学理解海权对大国崛起的影响。对此,作者指出多数西方学者都是结合经济、技术和制度的创新等其他因素来强调海权重要性的;历史也表明海权本身并不具有确保国家强盛的神奇功效,国家盛衰归根结底取决于社会生产方式的活力以及制度创新的能力。第二,新兴海权国家尤其是陆海复合国家挑战既有的世界海洋霸权,从而引发国际体系的冲突与动荡这一命题。作者通过实证分析指出,并不存在新兴海权国家与既有海洋霸权冲突的历史逻辑,其关键取决于新兴国家大战略的选择;同时还必须考虑到不同时期国际体系的总体特征和时代主题的不同。解释模式可以解释历史上的两次更迭,并为未来世界经济格局的预测提供一个视角。

In Western international relations theories,there are two remarkable propositions and related issues on seapower and the rise of great powers.The first proposition is that seapower is a necessary condition for global power.Relatededly,there is the issue of how to understand scientifically the effects of seapower on the rise of great powers.The author points out that most Western scholars emphasize the importance of seapower,but they also emphasize the importance of the economy,technology,and institutional innovation.However,history indicates that there are no supernatural effects of seapower on the rise of great powers.The second proposition is that the new seapower countries,especially the land-sea countries,challenge the existing global hegemony of the sea,often leading to conflict and turbulence.Based on empirical analysis,the author concludes that there is no historical logic to conflict between new seapowers and the existing global hegemony of the sea,and the key issue lies in the strategic choice of the new seapowers as well as in the different characteristics and themes of the international system at various times.