国家级数值预报产品分发系统

The Diagnostic Model of the Short range Area Rainstorm and the Integrated Discriminate Forecast in Henan Province

随着９２１０工程系统建设的完成，Ｔ１０６中期数值预报产品分发采用了地面通信系统和卫星通信系统两种传输路径。地面通信系统由于受传输能力限制，国家气象中心根据区域、省、地市级的不同接收能力，采取了３种不同的传输方式以满足各级气象台站的需求；而卫星通信系统因自上而下具有统一类型的设备、统一的图形软件，因此只需一种传输方式，其产品的信息量远远大于地面通信系统。

The diagnostic analysis of physical variables for area rainstorm from June to August in Henan Province was conducted and the dynamic model was given by using numerical forecast product of T63.The short range automatic forecasting system of rainstorm with divided areas was developed by the artificial intelligence,and by using the numerical forecast product data of T63(T42),two kinds of selecting regression independent variable method were used to establish the integrated discriminate forecasting in Henan province,one of two kinds is the stepwise regression analysis,the other is the least standard of the sum of error square.The trial results of the operational forecast from July to August in 1995 and 1996 was reviewed.