贸易开放度、产业专业化与中国经济增长研究

Openness, Industrial Specialization and China's Economic Growth

许多研究表明贸易开放度与中国经济增长存在显著的正相关关系,然而进一步的协整分析和改进的Granger因果检验显示:贸易开放度对中国经济增长并不存在直接的长期作用机制。为解释上述问题,本文构造了产业专业化指数来分析其影响机制,研究结果显示,以生产率为权重的产业专业化指数能够较好地刻画贸易开放度与中国经济增长的相互作用机制。贸易开放度的增加,加快优势行业的技术进步,导致生产率较高行业的专业化生产,从而促进中国经济的长期增长。

Many studies indicated that openness is significantly correlated with china’s growth, however, cointegration analysis and improved Granger test showed that openness has no di- rect long-run effect on China＇s economic growth .To solve the problem of the above conflicts, this paper constructs the index of industrial specialization, and the result of research shows that special- ization index describes the mechanism that openness affects economic growth. The increase of the degree of openness promotes the technological progress of industrial with comparative advantages, and leads to the increase of industry specialization of high productivity, thus promotes the long-rim growth of China accordingly.