摘要
本文利用我国1982-2005年不同部门服务贸易的进口、出口和GDP数据,根据协整和向量误差修正模型理论,分析了三者之间的关系。结论表明:不同部门三者之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系,短期偏离向长期调整的速度较快,且出口是经济增长的Granger原因。
Using the service 1982-2005 fiscal years, according to trade import-export data in the co-integration theory and different branches and GDP in vector error correction model, this paper analyses their relationships. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the three in different branch, the speed of the correction is very quick from the short-term departure to long-term equilibrium. Export is a Granger reason to economic growth.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第12期68-72,共5页
Journal of International Trade
关键词
服务贸易
经济增长
协整
向量误差修正模型
Service trade
Economic growth
Co-integration
Vector error correction model
