中国国际资本流入的影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Key Drivers of International Capital Inflows into China

本文通过建立中国长期和短期资本流入的协整方程,实证分析了2000年至2007年初中国国际资本流动的情况,考察了利差、通胀、汇率预期以及中国经济增长和股票市场发展等因素对不同性质资本流动的影响。实证分析显示,中国经济的高速发展和人民币稳步升值有利于吸引外国资本对中国进行直接投资,而人民币升值预期的加强和资本市场的蓬勃发展对短期资本的流入套利具有较强的吸引力,中外利差对短期资本也有一定的影响。

By establishing a VEC Model, this paper examines the key drivers of long-term and short-term capital inflows in China during 2000-2007. The results of regression show that： rapid growth of Chinese economy and appreciation of RMB may bring in FDI, which can not be explained by CPI and interest rate differentials between China and US; increasing expectation of RMB appreciation and boom of Chinese securities market are driving short-term capital flushing into China; interest rate differentials have some influence on short-term capital inflows as well.