兰州MODS评分诊断标准对高海拔地区MODS结局的预测分析

Prediction of outcome of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome on highland by Lanzhou scoring criteria for MODS

目的：比较高海拔地区3个诊断评分标准对多器官功能障碍综合征（MODS）结局预测的准确性．方法：分别用平原地区评分诊断标准（庐山会议评分分级标准和Marshall评分系统）以及高原MODS评分系统（兰州标准），对海拔1600～3200m的4JD例MODS的相关参数值绘制受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线），验证3个标准在不同海拔高度预测ARDS／MODS结局的准确性．结果：兰州标准检验高海拔MODS总分的ROC曲线下面积、预测结局的灵敏度、特异度，明显优于庐山和Marshall评分系统．结论：兰州标准适合于对高海拔地区MODS的病情评估．

AIM： To compare the accuracy of the 3 diagnosis scoring criteria for multiple organ dysfunction syndromes （MODS） in predicting the outcome of the syndrome. METHODS： By using the Lushan scoring system, Marshall scoring criterion （1995）, and Lanzhou scoring criterion, three data models of 40 cases of MODS on highland （altitude 1600 -3200 m） were set up to draw the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curves, and the accuracy of the 3 diagnosis criteria was evaluated in predicting the outcome of MODS. RESULTS： The Lanzhou criterion was significantly superior to the other two criteria in the area under ROC, the sensitivity and the specificity. CONCLUSION： Lanzhou scoring system is fit for assessing the severity of MODS on highland.