ARIMA计量技术下河南省农民增收的预测模型研究

A Research of the Prediction Model for Henan Farmers' Income Growth with ARIMA Measurement Technique

笔者根据河南省1978年～2005年的农民人均纯收入统计数据,将这些数据进行平稳化、零均值化处理,并利用时间序列的自相关函数,偏自相关函数的性质,确认数据所适合的模型。通过对样本数据所做的回归拟合模型定量分析,从而为河南省“十一·五”规划提供量化指标依据。

The author makes a stabilized and zero mean treatment of the statistic data on the per capita annual net income of Henan farm- ers between 1978 and 2005, and using the property of the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of time sequence, establishes the model appropriate for the data. Through a quantitive analysis of the sample data with the regression and expression model, the author provides the basis of the quantitative indicators for the ＂eleventh five - year plan of Henan province.