1985年以来我国居民消费过度敏感性的实证检验——基于状态空间模型的分析

An Empirical Test of the Excessive Sensitivity of Chinese Residents' Consumption since 1985——An Analysis Based on State Space Model

实证分析表明,居民消费存在过度敏感性,消费由当期收入决定的消费者所占比例不低于68%。收入和就业的不确定性、支出增长的预期、微弱的资产财富效应和流动性约束是导致过度敏感性的主要原因。较保守的消费习惯和利率效应的弱化也对消费的过度敏感性产生影响。为减缓过度敏感性对消费的负面影响,应该健全社会保障制度,建立多层次资本市场,健全消费信贷等社会信用制度,抑制住房和医疗等消费价格的过快增长。

Empirical analysis shows that there exists an excessive sensitivity in residents＇ consumption, and that the proportion of the number of consumers whose consumption depends on contemporary income isn＇t lower than 68%. Such factors as the uncertainty of income and employment, the expectation of expenditure growth, the weak asset wealth effect and liquidity constraint are the main causes of excessive sensitivity. Conservative consumption habits and weakening of interest rate effect also have an impact on the excessive sensitivity. In order to slow down the negative effect of excessive sensitivity on consumption, it is necessary to perfect the social security system, establish multi -layer capital markets, perfect the consumption credit system and other social credit systems, and restrain the excessive increase of the prices of housing and health care, etc.