国际环境下的项目政治风险评价模型

An Evaluation Model for Political Risks of Projects in International Context

在分析国际环境下项目政治风险的基础上,根据最优化原理和Lagrangian算子性质,得到国际环境下项目政治风险识别和选择的最优性条件,提出基于反向传播(BP)神经算法的国际项目政治风险评价模型.通过对60个国际项目进行政治风险的识别、选择、评价和分析,仿真试验结果表明,该模型及算法效果良好,可以综合众多专家的知识,计算结果精度较高,能准确评价政治风险对项目成本的影响.

Based on an analysis of political risks of projects in international context, and with the tools of the optimization theory and Lagrangian function theory, the optimized conditions of identification and selection of political risks are described in this paper and then an evaluation model of political risks integrated with back-propagation （BP） algorithm is presented. A simulation test about identification, selection, evaluation and analysis of political risks from 60 international projects witnesses benefits from this model. The model has integrated with much expert knowledge and can precisely evaluate the cost impact of political risks.