旅游业的溢出效应及其时间滞后研究

A Research on Overflowing Effect and Time Delay of Tourism Industry

利用溢出模型,本文研究了旅游业对国民经济其它产业的溢出效应、时间滞后效应与相对边际要素生产率差异。结果显示,与其它产业相比,旅游业的直接经济贡献较低,但旅游业对其它产业有较强的溢出弹性;旅游业的发展具有强劲的经济拉动作用,但较长的产业链条使旅游业的溢出传递时间滞后明显。因此发展旅游业推动经济增长必须持之以恒,否则难以收到预期的成效。

Based on overflowing effect model, this paper makes an analysis of the overflowing and time delay effect of tourism industry on other industries, and the relative marginal factor productivity differences. The result tells that tourism industry has powerful overflowing effect on other industries with yet a comparatively weak direct contribution to GDP, and that its growth has a powerful pushing force on the local economy. However, the result of the analysis also tells that the long industrial chain makes the overflowing effect of tourism industry tardy. The author concludes that the desired effect of the pushing power of tourism on economical growth should be guaranteed by unremitting efforts.