世博会参观者分布和影响因素分析

An Analysis of Visitor Distribution and Influencing Factors of World Exposition

本文根据2005年爱知世博会样本数据,采用多元线性模型,分析了世博会参观者的分布及其影响因素。研究表明:世博会参观者分布有其内在不均衡性,如阶段性持续递增、锯齿性曲线、不确定性、工作日和节假日分布差异等;世博会办展质量和吸引力是影响参观者人数和分布的最主要因素;影响参观者人数的外生变量,具有叠加和共振效应,因而形成参观者高峰日或低谷日。本文研究结果,将有助于上海世博会园区规划、运营筹划、成本预算和风险控制等。

According to the sample data of World Expo＇2005 in Aichi, this paper used multi-liner model to analyze visitor distribution and influencing factors of world expositions. The result shows that visitor distribution of World Expo shows kind of internal unbalance featured by staged continuous increase, a saw curve, uncertainness, and a difference between working days and weekends, etc.. the result also indicates that the quality and attractiveness of a World Expo is the determinant of both the amount and distribution of visitors, and that there is an overlap effect of extemal factors forming peak or valley day of visitors. The author believes that the result of analysis will benefit Shanghai 2010 World Expo in park planning, operations management, cost budget and risk control etc.