证据理论在港口航行环境安全组合评价中的应用

Application of Evidence Theory in the Safety Combined Assessment of Harbor Navigation Environment

为解决不同方法用于港口航行环境的安全评价产生的结果不一致问题,利用证据理论善于发挥各评价方法的特性映射机理不同的长处,整合和协调相关证据的信息,获得最接近事实的评价结果。以中国沿海10个港口的航行环境安全程度为例,应用证据理论,把主成分分析法、因子分析法、逼近理想解排序法(Topsis)、模糊理论及灰色理论5种方法所得评价结果,作为支持航行安全的证据进行组合处理。所得结果经相关性检验并与原文献中众数理论组合评价结果作比较,其结果一致性较高。船长们认为基于证据理论的组合评价结果更符合实际,确认该方法可以在同类研究中普遍应用。

To resolve the disaccord of assessment results caused by different safety assessment methods for harbor navigation environment, Evidence Theory （ET）is used to set up a combination assessment （CA） model by exploiting the advantages of different assessments methods, integrating and coordinating the infor- mation of relevant evidence. Then the real assessment result can be obtained by this model. By taking the safety degree of navigation environment of ten coastal ports of China as an example, the method of Princi- pal Component Analysis （ PCA）, Factor Analysis （ FA）, TOPSIS, Fuzzy Aggregate Assessment （FAA） and Gray Aggregate Assessment （GAA） are respectively employed to this case, and then five corresponding assessment results are obtained. To resolve the difference among those results, Evidence theory is a- dopted to make a combined disposal by taking the five groups of results as five evidences for safety naviga- tion. The disposal result is proved to be of high consistency according to the correlation test and compari- son with the original assessment result obtained by combination assessment. Captains consider that the combination assessment result based on Evidence Theory is much closer to the fact and this method could be widely applied to this kind of research.