大型活动拥挤踩踏事故模糊综合评估方法应用分析

Application Analysis of Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment Methods for Stampede Accidents in Large-scale Activities

在研讨人群拥挤踩踏事故及其预防控制的基础上,通过采用模糊综合评估方法,客观归类大型活动拥挤踩踏事故影响因素,建立二级模糊综合评估分析模型,并以沈阳世博会开幕式为例进行综合分析,得出安全等级。应用实例表明,模糊综合评估方法评估结果与实际安全状况基本吻合,具有实用性,能够比较客观、真实地反映大型活动的拥挤踩踏事故风险状况,值得在大型活动拥挤踩踏事故评估中推广和使用。

On the basis of the discussion of stampede trample accident prevention and control and the analysis of factors influencing stampede accidents in large-scale activities, a two-layer fuzzy comprehensive safety assessment model is established by use of fuzzy comprehensive assessment method. The Shenyang Expo Opening Ceremony is taken as an example to illustrate this method. It shows that the assessment resuh obtained by fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is in line with the actual situation and reflects the risk situation of stampede accidents in large-scale activities more objectively. This method is worth promoting and using in the assessment of stampede accidents in large-scale activities.