民航安全风险定量评价模型研究

Study on Risk Quantitative Assessment Model for Civil Aviation Safety

在对民航风险评价的现状和常用的定量风险评价方法进行分析的基础上,建立民航安全风险定量评价模型。在计算风险的可能性时,不仅考虑了风险的历史发生概率,而且利用风险发生概率影响因素所发生的变化对风险的历史发生概率进行修正,从而得出在当前情况下风险的发生概率,并且首次提出指数型权重的概念;在计算风险的后果时,考虑风险的直接损失和间接损失,并通过计算多种可能后果的期望的形式,综合考虑多种可能的后果情况;通过上述的可能性和严重性从而达到对安全风险进行定量评价的目的。最后,给出了一个算例,其结果表明该模型具有很强的实用性。

Based on the analyses of status quo of civil aviation risk assessment and commonly used.quantitative risk assessment methods, quantitative assessment model for civil aviation safety risk is put forward. When calculating the current probability of risk in this model, both the probability of risk in history and the change of those factors influencing the probability of risk in history are taken into account, therefore, the current risk probability is obtained by modifying the one in history. Moreover, the concept of exponential weight is put forward for the first time. When calculating the consequence of risk, the direct loss and indi- rect loss are not only taken into account, but also the different possible results of risk as well. So the consequence of risk is actually the expectation of different possible results of risk. Based on the above probability and consequence, the quantitative risk assessment for civil aviation safety is achieved. At last, an example is illustrated; the result shows that the model could be widely used in practice.