基于灰色系统的黄龙钙华景观演化研究

Study of the landscape evolution of the Huanglong tufa based on the grey system

黄龙的景观是在数万年的岩溶地质作用下的产物。近年来黄龙钙华出现了干涸、变黑、沙化等现象严重地影响了景观的观赏性。水资源在黄龙钙华发展变化中起着重要的作用,笔者通过收集并分析黄龙地区的监测数据,针对监测系统不健全,时序数据缺乏的特点,选用对时序数据要求不高、预测效果较好的灰色系统模型,以岩溶水体的pH值为指标预测了钙华未来的发展情况。采用地质统计学空间分析的克里金插值法,对预测结果进行插值获得了整个景区的钙华预测结果。笔者按pH值将钙华演化情况划为强侵蚀、弱侵蚀、堆积3种类型,指出黄龙钙华景观目前正处于动态平衡与消亡重组阶段。

Tufa in Huanglong is the product of several ten thousand years of karst geological processes. In recent years, the tufa has gradually dried up, blackened and been sandified, which has seriously affected the aesthetic characteristics. Water resources have played an important role in the development and change of the Huanglong tufa. The authors have collected and analyzed the monitoring data in the area and found that the monitoring system is not sound and that the data of the time sequence are lacking. According to these features, the authors choose a grey system model which does not require too much of the data of the time sequence and may yield a good result of prediction. They predicted the tufa development using pH as a proxy and used the kriging method to make interpolation of the results of prediction and thus obtained the prediction results of the tufa in the whole Huanglong area. Based on the pH values, the tufa development is divided into three types： strong erosion, weak erosion and accumulation. The Huanglong tufa is now in the stage of dynamic balance and decline and recombination.