江苏省城市用水预测研究

Prediction of urban water consumption of Jiangsu Province

运用联合国法和消费水平法分别预测出江苏省不同水平年城镇化水平,分析确定了江苏省不同水平年设区城市人口的数量;分别用分项预测法和城市人均综合用水定额法预测不同水平年城市用水量,两者结果非常接近,可采用人均综合用水量预测结果作为不同水平年的城市用水量,用分项预测成果分析各类用水的比重;针对城市用水预测结果,提出了保障江苏省设区城市用水的开源节流建议.

The level of urbanization of Jiangsu Province for different standard years was predicted by use of the United Nations method and the consumption level method, and the urban population in this area was analyzed and determined. Then the sub-item prediction method and the synthetic per capita water consumption quota method were employed to predict the urban water consumption of different standard years, and the results were much close to each other. As a result, the synthetic per capita water consumption quota method could be used for prediction of urban water consumption for different standard years, while the sub-item prediction method could be used for analysis of ratios of different kinds of water consumption. Finally, some suggestions for urban water saving and exploitation in this area were made according to the prediction of urban water consumption.