摘要
构建了制定梯级水库群联合优化调度函数的"优化-拟合-再优化-随机仿真"框架:首先建立梯级水库群优化调度模型,通过确定性动态规划方法得到最优样本;然后对最优样本进行多元线性回归分析得到联合调度函数;并基于模拟调度结果采用非线性规划方法直接修正调度函数;最后通过水文随机模拟技术生成径流系列,进一步检验、评价所得调度函数的效率。以清江梯级水库群长期优化调度为对象进行实例研究,计算结果表明:对于1951-2005年实测径流系列,梯级水库群联合优化调度函数较常规调度方案年均增加发电量2.03亿kW.h,增幅达2.79%;对于两种随机模拟方法生成的水文径流系列,年均发电量分别提高了1.74%和2.36%,经济效益显著。
The framework of optimization, fitting, re-optimization and simulation approach for deriving the optimal operating rules for cascade reservoirs is proposed and developed in this paper. Firstly, the optimal data set is obtained by using the deterministic dynamic programming method to solve the optimization model. Secondly, the operating rules are established by using the statistical analysis of the optimal data set. Thirdly, the operating rules are refined by using the simulation based optimization method. Finally, the operating rules are verified by using the synthetic inflow generated based on the stochastic hydrology. The Qingjiang cascade hydropower plants are selected as the case study. It is shown that the proposed method works well and can improve the hydropower generation greatly.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第6期816-822,共7页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50609017)
湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2005ABA315)~~
关键词
梯级水库
优化调度
调度函数
随机模拟
cascade reservoirs
optimal operation
operating rules
stochastic simulation
