江苏省水资源承载能力评价

Assessment of water resource carrying capacity of Jiangsu province

首先进行了系统动力学方法应用于水资源承载能力评价的理论分析,提出了基于水资源供需紧张度系数的水资源承载能力系统动力学评价思路。进而结合江苏省水资源特点,计算了包含经济增长率、供水水平和保证率三组参数8种典型方案的江苏省水资源承载能力,为江苏省水资源承载能力建设提供了依据。

Theory analysis is made about the feasibility of using system dynamics method for water resources carrying capacity evaluating in the paper first. Then the concept of deficiency coefficient of water supply and water demand is put forward for water resource carrying capacity evaluation. Based on the water resource characteristic of Jiangsu province, water resources carrying capacity is studied with the method of system dynamics. Eight typical models of Jiangsu water resources carrying capacity are formulated by calculating the economic growth rate, the water supply planning and the different guarantee rate, which are helpful for Jiangsu water resources carrying capacity building.