人口预测子系统的设计与实现

Design and implementation of population forecast subsystem

未来人口状况是土地利用总体规划中调整土地利用结构、确定各类用地控制性指标的重要依据.人口发展与土地需求量密切相关,要预测规划期间土地需求量,首先必须对人口的发展状况作出预测.本文总结了常用的人口预测的数学模型,并利用这些数学模型进行了县级人口预测子系统方案的设计,目的是利用计算机来处理人口预测中一些复杂的数学计算和数据整理,为编制土地利用总体规划提供重要的数据.

Future population state is an important foundation that can be served with adjusting land - use structure and ensuring all the kind of indices to control land use. So population development has a close relation with land demand. According to forecast land demand by planning, forecasting development state of population is the first step. This paper sums up the mathematical model of the population forecast. In order to transact complicated mathematical problem population forecast subsystem was designed by those mathematical model. The important data were provided for the land use comprehensive planning.