人类环境影响驱动因素非线性动力学关系分析

Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis on the Driving Forces of Human Environmental Impacts

根据非线性科学理论,建立人类环境影响与人口增长系数、富裕增长系数、其它综合因素增长系数、技术指标四者之间的二次、三次非线性动力学模式,并运用稳定性分析理论对其求解、分析。结果表明:①在技术对人类环境影响的线性作用下,当技术先进时,技术进步所起的缓解作用十分显著;但在技术落后情况下,能够降低环境影响的因素首先是人口增长,其次是富裕增长和其他综合因素增长。②在技术对人类环境影响的非线性作用下,同样的技术进步使人类的环境影响降低了接近一倍,即技术进步能够更有效地降低环境影响。③在技术对人类环境影响的线性和非线性作用下,人口增长或富裕增长、其它综合因素增长均能放大技术进步在缓解环境影响中的作用,只是非线性作用下的放大效应更显著。

In this paper, four variables are introduced, population growth, affluence growth, other combined factors growth, and technology index. The quadratic and cubic nonlinear dynamic models about human impacts on environment,are constructed on the basis of the nonlinear science theory. The analysis shows that： ①If technology affects human environment by linear impacts, the decreasing part affected by technology is obvious with advanced technology. However, with less advanced technology, the most decreasing part is population growth, the next is affluence growth, and the third is other combined factors growth. ②If technology affects human environment by nonlinear impacts, population growth,affluence growth,and other combined factors growth play an amplificatory role, which means that the same advanced technology can reduce human impacts more effectively. ③When technology affects human environment by linear and nonlinear impact, advanced technology can reduce environmental impacts, What is more, the amplificatory role are much greater under the nonlinear affection.