出口贸易可持续发展:理论内涵、评价模型及经验研究

Export Sustainable Development: Theoretic Meaning,Evaluation Model and Empirical Research

在人文贸易主义价值取向逐渐兴起的背景下，对外贸易可持续发展观越来越受到关注。选择以出口贸易可持续发展作为研究对象，在对出口贸易可持续发展内涵进行理论阐释的基础上尝试建立测度一国出口贸易可持续发展水平的指标体系和评价模型，最后对中国出口贸易可持续发展水平进行经验研究。结果显示1985-2003年中国出口可持续发展水平大致呈现出曲折缓慢上升趋势，通过灰色聚类可将各年份出口贸易可持续发展水平划分为优、良、中、劣四等。在多数年份中国出口社会经济效益的获取要以同期环境质量下降和资源过度消耗作为代价，且中国出口规模的持续加速上升并未带来出口经济效益水平的提升，这主要源于出口贸易条件的恶化，因此需警惕在中国出现“贫困化出口增长”问题。

With the effect of human trade doctrine in the international trade field, almost all the countries have paid more attention to the sustainable development of international trade. This paper chose the export sustainable development as the research object. Basing on the analysis of the theoretic connotation of the export sustainable development, this paper tried to establish the evaluation indexes system and set up the evaluation model of export sustainable development level and finally made empirical research on China. The result indicated that the comprehensive level of export sustainable development in China showed a tendency to rise from 1985 to 2003 and the export sustainable development level of China in these years can be divided into four grade： excellent, good, moderate and poor. In most years the social economic benefits of export was obtained at the cost of the deterioration of environment and the depletion of resource and the economic profit of export hadn＇t increased with the enlargement of the export scale because of the deterioration of the terms of trade. So China should be careful of the poverty accompanied by the increase of export.