地震砂土液化可能性的非确定性灰色预测方法

Indeterminate Gray Prediction Method of Possibility of Sand Liquefaction During Earthquake

考虑到现有方法所存在的不足，将地震作用下的饱水砂土体系视为一内部信息部分已知、部分未知的灰色系统，本文给出了一个地震砂土液化可能性的不确定性灰色预测方法。实际算例表明，本文所给的方法具有计算简便和结果可靠客观等优点。文中还首次提出了液化临界烈度的概念。

In view of the deficiencies of the existing methods, the saturated sandy deposits subjected to earthquake being thought of as a gray system with partly known and partly unknown information, a gray prediction approach is provided to the possibility of sand liquefaction during earthquakes. Practical examples show that the method given here has many advantages, including its simple computation, reliable results and practicality. The concept of the critical liquefaction intensity is first proposed in this paper.