伊朗核危机阴影下的以色列先发制人战略

Israeli Pre-emptive Strategy in the shadow of Iran’s Nuclear Crisis

伊朗核危机爆发后,以色列一直酝酿对伊朗核设施采取先发制人打击。从实证研究来看,促进该战略实施的因素分别是:维护以色列国家安全;转移以色列国内民众视线;联合国对伊朗实施了制裁;美国执行了模糊政策;以色列在先发制人战略运用上经验丰富。制约该战略实施的因素分别是:以色列进攻性军事力量的有限性;以色列国内政治派别的反对;以色列缺乏盟友的鼎力支持;国际舆论的反对;伊朗的反击能力。由于制约因素占上风,以色列先发制人战略受到遏止。未来这一战略是否得以执行,将主要受伊朗核技术发展走向、国际舆论导向和美、以、伊三国国内政治发展的多重影响。

Israeli government and military managements have been fermenting to make possible preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities since the nuclear crisis broke out. There are five factors which may promote Israel to lunch a military action on Iranian nuclear facilities:maintaining Israeli Security;transfering attention of public opinion;the sanction of UN on Iran;the equivocal attitude of U.S.;Israel experiences in the past. There are also five limitation factors: the limitation of Israeli military operation;the opposite opinions from Israeli internal parties;no allies will support Israel;the opposite attitude from international world;Iranian ability of counterattack. Israeli preemptive Strategy is contained at present by the limitation factors. If the preemptive Strategy will come into being, it will depend on the trends of Iran’s nuclear plan, the leading attitude of international public opinion, and the political development in US, Israel and Iran.