高致病性禽流感传播机理的SEID模型构建及应用

The Construction and Application of SEID Model for the Disseminate Mechanism of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza(HPAI)

把全部家禽分为易感者(Susceptible)、潜伏者(Exposed)、传染者(Infectious)和死亡者(Died)4种类型,分析了它们之间疫病传播的关系,建立了对应的微分方程模型,即高致病性禽流感传播机理的SEID模型.借助此模型分析了地方政府的趋利行为对疫病扩散的影响,旨在探索遏止疫病蔓延的有效手段.

All the poultry are divided into four types：suceptible, exposed, infec-tious and died. Then the relationship of transimition between them is analyzed and the canonical differential equation, the SEID model of the dissemination mechanism of HPAI,is established. By this model, the impact of the local government＇s benefit pursuing behavior on spread of disease is analyzed, which aims to explore an efficient way to suppress the spread of disease.