中国进出口贸易顺差的原因、现状及未来展望

AN EXPLANATION OF CHINA'S TRADE BALANCE AND IT'S FUTURE PERSPECTIVE

以工业制成品进出口为主导,并附之以初次产品进口的国际贸易分工模式所带来的大量贸易顺差,是中国经济的资源禀赋和对外投资、贸易政策共同作用的结果;而顺差变化幅度的轨迹则表明,中国经济正在实现通过外向型政策创造比较优势,向依靠国内大市场培育的规模经济和近乎无限供给的劳动力条件形成的、自发的比较优势转变这一过程。因此,贸易顺差的扩大是未来相当长时期内中国经济对外贸易的基本态势,不存在任何低成本的快速降低贸易顺差的短期措施。

This paper argues that both the export-oriented policies and endowments make contributions to the formation of China＇s trade paradigm exporting the manufacture products while importing the primary products, and thus the trade surpluses. The rapid growth of trade surpluses in recent years indi- cates that the comparative advantages inherited in the growing big markets and low-cost labors are gradual ly become effective. So China＇s trade surpluses will further expand and no any low-cost measures can de- crease the trade surpluses effectively.