摘要
土地资源是人类赖以生存与发展的重要物质基础。根据大卫.罗默的假说,由于土地与其他自然资源的限制,实际的经济增长将呈下降趋势,即存在因土地与其他自然资源的消耗而引起的"尾效"。1978—2005年,中国经济增长中土地资源的"尾效"平均每年约为1.26个百分点。也就是说,由于土地资源的消耗,在1978—2005年期间,中国的经济增长速度平均每年降低了1.26%。按照这一数据推算下去,到2030年,中国的年经济增长率将会因为土地资源的"尾效"而降低到目前经济增长率的74%;到2050年,中国的年经济增长率将会因为土地资源的"尾效"而降低到目前经济增长率的57%。
Land resources are important material basis of survival and development of mankind. According to the assumption of David Romer, real economic growth will show a declining trend because of the limitations of land and other natural resources, namely, there exists a kind of drag caused by the consumption of land and other natural resources. Based on the analysis, the author computes China＇s economic growth drag of land resources during 1978-2005 in this paper, i.e. averages about 1.26 percent per annum. In other words, due to the consumption of land resources, China＇s economic growth rate has been reduced by average 1.26% annually during 1978-2005. This number is rather large. Computed on the basis of the data, China＇s economic growth rate will be reduced to 74% of the present because of the drag of land resources in 2030, and it will be reduced to 57% of the present in 2050.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第11期32-37,共6页
Economic Theory and Business Management
关键词
经济增长
土地资源
尾效
economic growth
land resources
drag
