外来入侵物种的风险评估定量模型及应用

Review of quantitative models for risk assessment of invasive alien species

预防生物入侵的一个重要手段是对外来物种进行风险评估,应用模型则是定量评估的必备方法。本文简述了常用的适生性风险评估模型,概述了诸如遗传算法、模糊包络模型、自组织特征映射网络等较新的理论方法,它们使用环境变量和物种实际分布数据,利用不同的机理模型预测物种潜在分布区。本文还综述了适用于研究物种扩散性的模型,积分差分方程模型可以模拟物种扩散行为,元胞自动机模型可以揭示种间竞争关系,景观中性模型大多用于种群动态等生态过程的研究。

It is widely acknowledged that risk assessment has become an indispensable part of controlling of biological invasion. Therefore, there is a pressing need to formulate scientifically sound methods and approaches of quantitative model in this emerging field. This paper reviewed a few new predictive modeling techniques, called genetic algorithm, fuzzy envelope model and self-organising map, which are used to predict potential distribution of organisms. Meanwhile, integrodifference equation models, cellular automata and neutral landscape models, which deal with the spread of populations, were also introduced and discussed.