陕西省可持续发展预警分析

A study on the yellow alert system of sustainable development of Shaanxi Province

目的计算陕西省近10年来经济、社会、人口、资源、环境及总系统可持续发展预警值,参照警界划分标准得出各年各系统的预警评价,并预测今后的发展趋势,为宏观调控和决策提供科学依据,促进生态环境与经济社会的可持续协调发展。方法采用层次分析法,建立可持续预警指标体系及预警模型,确定警界划分标准以及相应的警情信号系统,从定量的角度度量陕西省可持续发展状态。结果陕西省总体发展状况逐年提高,但发展水平低,尚处于初级阶段,系统比较脆弱,自我调节能力不强,环境、资源子系统的脆弱性对总系统影响逐渐凸显,必须对发生预警的年份做出反应,否则将威胁系统的运行。结论总系统可持续发展取决于环境、经济、社会各子系统交叉作用的结果,是以人为中心的发展。

Aim To explore the yellow alert system of sustainable development in the last 10 years in Shaanxi Province,try to construct the frame of the yellow alert system of sustainable development and provide some suggestions for the government′s scientific decisions.Methods Based on the analysis in Shaanxi Province（1993—2002）,the analytic hierarchy method and expert comparison method are adopted,index system and analysis model of the yellow alert system of sustainable department are established to evaluate the system.Results It shows that although the total developmental situation was increasing in the last 10 years through our effort,the total system′s developmental level is lower,the regulation ability of the total system is not satisfactory,we must pay more attention to those years that have some yellow alert situation and carry out necessary measures.Conclusion A new thinking is necessary on qua initiative analysis of sustainable department.More than economic development,the sustainable development depends on the svhole social development in duding environment and other factors of society.