1855年黄河大改道与百年灾害链

Great change of lower Yellow River channel in 1855 and the disaster chain for 100 years more in the world

1855年黄河铜瓦厢决口北流,改道从山东入海,是一次百年灾害链形成的巨变,黄淮海平原成为中国水灾的中心。经研究发现:1740—1818年为中国地震宁静期,黄河流域正处于干旱枯水期;1819年印度卡其发生8.3级大地震,黄河出现多泥沙特大洪水,河南兰阳以下近30 km河道严重淤塞;1819—1879年大地震密集出现,并有9级以上特大地震4次,其中1833—1870年大地震主要分布在东亚;黄河因而于1841—1843年连续出现特大洪水,造成下游多次决溢、以致改道。文中第一次以科学和历史结合给出解释,其结论可供当前地球科学灾害链研究及治黄参考。

Lower Yellow River was breached at Tongwaxiang and toward north through Shandong Province to Bohai Sea in 1855, which is the greatest disaster in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and the peak of global disaster chain for 100 years more, especially in East Asia and North America. This paper gives it a scientific and historical interpretation for the first time. The views set forth in the article may serve as a reference to the present regulation of Yellow, Huai and Hai rivers and the important plain of China and to the research on geophysical problems.