论综合灾害风险防范模式——寻求全球变化影响的适应性对策

On integrated disaster risk governance:seeking for adaptive strategies for global change

在评述国际上近年开展综合灾害风险研究进展的基础上,总结了笔者对综合灾害研究的一些想法与开展综合灾害风险防范的实践,提出了建立综合灾害风险防范模式,即发展区域灾害系统的理论;综合灾害脆弱性、恢复性与适应性,全面理解灾害风险的形成机制;整合政府、企业与社会减灾资源,系统集成区域减灾范式;建立巨灾风险转移机制,实现减灾由区域防范到全球防范的综合。

Based on the recent progress in the integrated disaster risk research worldwide, we summarize some ideas on integrated disaster risk research and our practices of integrated disaster risk control. We propose to establish an integrated disaster risk control mode, i. e. , a regional disaster system theory. In such a theory, a comprehensive understanding of disaster risk-forming mechanism is provided by integrating disaster vulnerability, resilience and adaptability. In this theory, we propose to integrate the disaster reduction resources from governments, enterprises and society, and to integrate the regional disaster reduction paradigm systematically. We suggest the establishment of a catastrophe risk transfer mechanism to implement the integration of disaster reduction transferred from regional to global governance.