深圳地区蜚蠊种群的环境因子分析与动态模拟

Environmental Factor Analysis and Dynamic Model of Cockroach Population in Shenzhen

目的：研究蜚蠊种群与环境因子的相互关系，为制定防制对策和预测预报提供理论基础。方法：应用灰色关联分析。结果：降雨和温度是影响蜚蠊种群密度的重要因子，并利用富立叶调和函数建立种群动态的时间序列模型，模拟结果满意。结论：降雨量多、温度高的季节，亦是蜚蠊密度高峰期，此前是控制其危害的最佳时机。

This paper employed grey relative analysis to study the relationships between environmental factors and population dynamics of cockroach adults. The importance of environmental factors were ranked:rainfall>temperature > humidity > sunshine. A mathematical model with Fourier Series were constructed to model the population dynamics, the fitting results were good enough. This can provide guidance to the forcast and contro of these insects.