船舶碰撞概率的广义线性预测模型研究

Study on Logistic Model of Ship Collision Probability Prediction

根据Logistic模型基本原理建立事故概率预测模型,并对事故概率进行预测。通过模型预测结果与实际值对比,得出利用广义线性预测模型对事故概率进行预测具有一定可信度。

According to the basic principle of logistic model, we build the prediction model of ship collision probability, and then predict the ship collision probability. By comparing the predicted results with real numerical values, we can reach that the prediction of ship collision probability which uses the logistic model has some credibility.