霍山震群的前兆意义研究

Study on Premonitory Sense of Huoshan Earthquake Cluster

本文利用1970年以来霍山地区14次震群资料,对其单项及综合指标作了计算和研究,根据《地震学分析预报方法程式指南》及其它文献,判断其前兆性。另外,对前兆震群与未来中强震距离和分布区域以及间隔时间进行了统计,并对其预报效能作出评估,为安徽及华东地区中强地震震情判定提供一个较科学的依据。

Making use of the data of 14 seismic clusters in Huoshan, we account and analyze the single index and integrate index. Based on The Manual of Seismological Analysis and Prediction Method and other resourses, we estimate the portent of the cluster. Otherwise, we have estimated the distance, the distributing area and interval time between the earthquake and portent shake cluster, and the prediction efficiency has been evaluated. This can provide us a rather scientific gist to determinate the moderate earthquakes in Anhui and East China.