应用动态植被模型LPJ模拟中国植被变化研究

Application of LPJ Model in Simulating Vegetation Distribution of China

依据中国植被与气候的关系对动态植被模型LPJ中的生物气候参数进行了调整.将改进后LPJ模拟的潜在植被类型与中国植被区划图比较发现有很大改进.应用CRU05资料和改进后的LPJ模型模拟了中国20世纪的4个气候阶段的潜在植被类型的分布变化.结果发现,由于气候变暖,20世纪我国森林植被大部分呈现出北移趋势,而热带季雨林、雨林植被分布在20世纪呈西移趋势,其面积减少最大;温带常绿阔叶林植被分布呈南移特征,其面积呈增加趋势.温带草本植被面积呈扩大趋势,而无植被区面积呈缩减趋势.

Based on the relationship between vegetation and climate in China, this paper modified the bioclimatic parameters of LPJ model （Lund-Potsdam-Jena Model） and used it to simulate the potential vegetation distribution of China. The simulated result was found to have greatly improved the original vegetation regionalization map of China. In a subsequent simulation of the potential vegetation distribution of China in four climate periods of the 20th century, using the modified LPJ model and CRU05 data, the great mass of forest vegetation showed a trend of northward shift, while the tropical ＆ monsoon rainforests showed a westward shift trend with a great shrinkage of their area, as the result of global warming. In contrast, the temperate evergreen broad-leaved forests presented a southward shift trend and its area expanded. The area of temperate steppes showed an expanding trend while the no-vegetation area （desert area） showed an expanding trend while the no-vegetation area （desert area） showed ashrinking trend.