经济增长、结构失衡与流动性过剩——论我国当前流动性过剩的成因与对策

Economic Growth,Structural Imbalance,and the Excess of Liquidity

由于社会保障制度的不完善和分配结构的不合理,经济增长带来居民收入增长的同时,消费需求难以有效放大,储蓄和净出口的高增长成为必然。储蓄的高增长导致银行的存贷差上升,其分流导致股市和房市的流动性过剩;净出口的持续高增长和国际资本的大量涌入导致国际收支持续的高顺差。由于汇率缺乏弹性,基础货币的被动增加和货币乘数的预期外上升一并导致货币供给过剩。强化储备货币发行国的发行约束;调整外贸发展战略,优化产业结构;扩大消费需求;扩大汇率浮动区间;提高货币政策的科学性等措施可以有效控制和利用流动性过剩。

Though economic growth leads to residents＂ earnings growth, the consumption demand is hard to enlarge because of the social security system and the structure of earnings, the high growth of deposit and net export are the inevitable result. High growth of deposit lead to the difference of bank deposit and credit, and the distribution of deposit causes too much money in capital market when a amount of capital enters into stock market and real estate market. The continued high growth of net exports and the influx of international capital has led to sustained surplus, and because the exchange rate lacks flexibility, the Central Bank is forced to purchase the foreign currency and to issue a amount of notes, but the amount of basic money is still rising. The increasing of monetary muhiplier and basic money result in too much money supply. Enhancing the rule of reserve currency supply; Adjusting the foreign trade strategy, speeding up the process of industrial structure optimization; Enlarging consumption demand; Improving the exchange rate system and expand the exchange rate band; Improving the monetary policy, etc., all these measures above should reduce the excess hquidity effectively.