基于理性预期条件下的宏观经济政策有效性分析

Analysis of the Validity of Macroeconomic Policies under Conditions of Rational Expectation

理性预期理论是最近二十几年在西方发展起来的一个新兴学派,它的发展在一定程度上改变了现代西方经济学的分析方法和理论结构。本文从理性预期学派的起源和理论基础出发,以理性预期的视角探讨现代宏观经济体系中微观层面上个体行为与宏观层面上经济行为之间的内在联系,认为政府在微观经济主体具备良好理性预期能力的前提下,宏观经济政策对经济的调节是有限的,政府必须充分尊重并合理引导微观经济主体的预期,才能不断提高宏观经济政策的效用。

As a rising school developing in western world recent twenty years, the development of rational expectation theory has to a certain extent changed the method of analysis and the theory structure of modem western economics. Based on the origin of rational expectation school and its theoretical foundation, this paper from the view of rational expectation studies the internal relations of individual behavior in microcosmic and economic actions in macroscopic within modem economic system. This paper believes that the regulation of macroeconomic policies to economy is limited on the premise that microeconomic units have good rational expectation ability, and only after the government fully respects and properly guides the expectation of microeconomic units can the effect of macroeconomic policies be improved.