中国经济增长如何持续发挥规模效应?——经济开放与国内商品市场分割的实证研究

How to Maintain China’s High Growth Rate via Scale Economy——An empirical study of economic opening and domestic market segmentation

国内市场分割不利于发挥规模效应，不利于经济可持续增长。在本文中，我们首先利用商品零售价格指数数据构造出度量地区间市场分割程度的指标，发现中国国内商品市场总体上处于趋向整合的状态。随后，我们将这个指标作为被解释变量，利用1985-2001年的省级面板数据分析了经济开放、国有企业就业比重、政府消费的相对规模、地区间的技术差异和地理距离对于市场分割程度的影响，并且将研究的重点放在了经济开放上。研究发现，在经济开放水平较低时，经济开放加剧了国内市场的分割，但进一步的经济开放能够促进国内市场一体化。而国有企业就业比重和政府消费的相对规模是加剧市场分割的因素。基于模型的预测表明，未来在一些省份国内商品市场分割有加剧的可能性。

Domestic market segmentation is harmful for scale economy and sustainable economic growth. In this paper, we construct an index of interregional market segmentation using regional CPI of consumer goods, and we find China＇s domestic goods market is being integrated. With this index as dependent variable, we use Chinese provincial panel data from 1985-2001 to study the effects of opening, employment pressure, government consumption, interregional technique gap, and geographic distance on market segmentation, and we focus on the effect of opening. We find that when opening is at its initial stage, opening strengthens market segmentation, but further opening enhances domestic market integration. Besides this, we also evidence that employment pressure and government consumption deteriorates market segmentation. The model forecasts that goods market could be more seriously segmented in several provinces in the coming years.