传统农业时代乡村粮食安全水平估测

Assessment on the Level of Food Security in Traditional Agriculture Period of China

传统农业时代中国单位面积的粮食产量长期在世界处于领先地位,农业技术水平的提高在很大程度上降低了饥荒风险,减缓了饥荒的发生。隋唐以前粮食生产能力处于持续上涨阶段,粮食生产能力完全能够应对可能发生的饥荒,而且还可以供养更多的人口。宋元明时期粮食生产能力依然高于秦汉时期的水平。入清以后由于人口增殖过快,人口压力剧增,粮食供应空前紧张。清代中国人均粮食占有量倒退到2000多年前春秋战国时代的水平上,饥荒的频繁发生已经呈现出不可避免的恶化趋势。因此提高粮食产量水平成为20世纪中国最为关键的问题,在耕地资源基本开发殆尽的情况下,唯有采取改进农业技术提高单位面积产量的办法最为可行。战争和自然灾害是导致粮食波动的根本性因素,局部地区因此而出现粮食短缺,饥荒的发生成为可能。农民是粮食生产的主体力量,同时也是最易遭受饥荒危害的社会群体。中国传统社会农民生活水平长期处于贫困化的状态,直至20世纪中叶依然没有发生根本性变化。

The level of food security rest mainly with three factors in historical period, the capability of agriculture production, gross population, and natural disasters. With the high level science and technology of agronomy, China＇s agriculture production provided abundant food to survive more individuals than that people living in other parts of the ancient world. But the natural disasters occurred from north to south regions frequently lead to enormous reduction of food output in ancient China, which brought China＇s food security to a running low condition in recent 2000 years, especially in Qing dynasty. This bad condition of food occupation was aggravated by social status for people who living lower classes, which included peasant proprietors and villeins.