基于方差的全局敏感性方法在空战效能分析中的运用

Variance-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method Using in Air Combat Effectiveness Analysis

全局敏感性分析方法,是分析输入不确定性对输出影响的主要方法。介绍了基于方差的全局敏感性分析方法的概念和特点,对其敏感性指标定义和基于蒙特卡洛的计算方法进行了详细说明。结合作战效能分析中参数相关的特点,提出相关输入的抽样方法。利用上述方法对一种空战效能模型的输入和主要假设进行分析,得到了输入变量的重要度排序和变量间的主要交互效应。

The global sensitivity analysis （SA） is the effect of the uncertain inputs to the output. The notation important methods that was used to analysis and characteristic of the variance-based SA, were presented. The definition of the measures of sensitivity and their estimating method based on Monte Carlo were detailedly explained. A sampling method was presented on the base of the characters of correlated inputs in the combat effectiveness analysis. At last, by analysing the inputs and some main hypotheses of an air combat model with the variance-based SA method, the importance order and main interaction effects of the variables were found.