基于PLS的湖北省经济增长水平分析

Analysis of Economic Growth of Hubei Province Based on Partial Least Square Regression

采用新型的多元统计分析方法—偏最小二乘回归(PLS)分析方法,利用1988～2004年的统计数据对湖北省经济增长情况进行了科学的分析.分析结果表明:人口增长因素对湖北省的经济增长有阻碍作用;湖北省的进出口水平不平衡,对经济增长有很大的影响.还有一些其他因素分别对经济增长有不同程度的积极作用.

Applying a new method-Partial Least Square （PLS） regression, and combining with the data of economy from 1988 to 2004, analyses the impact on economic growth of Hubei province, which will promote the economic development moderately and be used for seting up ＂harmonious Hubei＂. It discovers that the population growth factor play a negative role in Hubei＇s economic growth, and the level of import and export is not balance, which has an great influence on economic growth of Hubei. Other factors have the positive effect with different degree. Finally, based on PLS regression result, some policy advice were provided to promote a stable and long-term economic in- crease in Hubei.