乘积季节模型在伤寒副伤寒发病预测中的应用探析

Application of product season model on incidence forecasting in typhoid and paratyphoid:an exploration

目的研究乘积季节模型在伤寒副伤寒发病预测中的应用,并探讨提高模型准确性和实用性的思路。方法以1980年1月至2000年7月江苏省伤寒副伤寒发病资料建立模型,以2000年的发病资料作为模型预测效果的考核样本。先采用差分方法对序列资料进行平稳化,然后进行定阶并估计参数,建立乘积季节模型,最后对预测结果进行分析和评价。结果江苏省伤寒副伤寒的发病趋势将在以后一段时间内仍呈平稳下降,检验结果表明模型是合适的。结论用乘积季节模型对伤寒副伤寒月发病情况的拟合结果满意,预测效果良好。

Objective To research the application of product seasonal model in forecasting infectious disease, and explore the way to improve the veracity and practicability of forecasting. Methods Model was fitted by the historical data of typhoid and paratyphoid of Jiangsu Province. Firstly, the authors used different methods to make the sequence placid. Then the parameters of model were estimated and a product seasonal model was set up by deciding the rank of it. Finally, testing goodness-of-fit was given to verify its practicability and reliability. Results The trends of incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid would continue to decline steadily in the near future, and at the same time, the model was thought to be appropriate by test. Conclusions The proposed model is practical for predicting typhoid and paratyphoid in Jiangsu Province.