两种库存管理方法下的牛鞭效应比较分析

A Comparative Study of Bullwhip Effect between Two Different Inventory Management Approaches Based on ARIMA Demand

建立了ARIMA供应链需求模型,利用订货量方差和需求方差的比值,分别对Order-up库存管理方法和基于MRP的库存管理方法下的牛鞭效应进行了量化。比值大于1则牛鞭效应存在且与比值成正比,反之则牛鞭效应不存在。模拟试验对两种库存管理方法作了对比,结果表明基于MRP的库存管理方法在多数情况下产生了较小的牛鞭效应。

In this paper, the ARIMA demand model is established in a supply chain. And we use the ratios of the order and demand variances to quantify the bullwhip effects under Order-up inventory management approach and MRP based inventory management approach separately. If the ratio is greater than 1, the bullwhip effect exists and is proportional to the ratio; if not, the bullwhip effect does not exit. Simulation model is used to compare these two approaches and the results show that MRP based approach gives smaller bullwhip effect than the traditional order-up approach in most cases.