我国水路运输业与国民经济发展关系的协整分析

Co-integration Analysis on the Relationship between the Development of China's Transportation of Waterways and the National Economy

运用协整理论、Granger因果关系对水路运输业与国民经济的关系进行了研究.研究结果表明:水路运输业的货物周转量、旅客周转量与代表国民经济的GDP之间没有协整关系;水运货运周转量是国民经济发展的Granger原因;水运旅客周转量是水运货运周转量的Granger原因.最后根据计量分析的结果对我国水路运输业的发展提出了建议.

Based on the theory of Co-integration and Granger causal relationship, Co-integration and Granger causal relationship between transportation of waterways and the national economy have been tested. The results show that there is no Co-integration between freight turnover volume, passenger turnover volume and GDP. Freight turnover volume is Granger causation of GDP. ：assenger turnover volume is Granger causation of Freight turnover volume. Finally, the conclusion and suggestions on the development of transportation of waterways have been put forward.