基于前景理论的路径选择行为规则分析与实证

Analysis and Demonstration of the Traveler's Route Choice Behavior Rule Based on the Prospect Theory

提出了通过具体的效用度量对出行者路径选择行为进行分析的方法.从传统的期望效用理论和前景理论两个方面,对一份关于出行者路径选择的调查数据进行了分析;验证了出行者群体在不确定环境下进行路径选择时,效用度量是基本决策规则,并且其效用度量体系与前景理论针对一般经济主体的效用度量体系接近.最后借助图形说明了合理设定出行者风险态度水平的重要性.

In this investigation, a method that can be used to analyze the traveler＇s route choice behavior based on utility measuration is advanced. Besides, a set of survey data is analyzed in this method from the aspects of traditional ＂Expected Value Theory＂ and ＂Prospect Theory＂ correspondingly. It is tested that utility measuration is the basic rule during the traveler＇s rout choice process. This investigation also verifies the consistence of the travelers＇ and common economic bodies＇ utility measuration systems. Finally, it points out the importance of the assuming traveler＇s attitude to risk exactly with a figure.