城市公交客流影响因素的改进灰色一致关联分析

Improved Grey Uniform Analysis for Relationship between Transit Ridership and Its Influence Factors

在大力提倡公共交通优先发展的阶段,对城市公交客流的影响因素进行分析有着重要的指导意义.将城市公交客流的影响因素分为公交服务水平与城市发展情况两个方面,选取了10个指标作为影响因素.考虑到城市公交客流与其影响因素之间的关系具有灰色特征和动态性的特点,建立了改进灰色一致关联分析模型.该模型具有考虑变量变化率的差异以及易于发现负相关因素的特点.然后,定义了差异度,以降低无量纲处理方法和时间序列长度对于分析结果的影响.最后,本文以北京为实例,选取8年的数据进行分析.结果表明,改进灰色一致关联分析计算出的结果与实际相符,更能反映城市公交客流与其影响因素之间的负相关关系,具有较好的实用价值.

With the guidance of public transport priority development ideas, it is very important to discuss the main affecting factors which are grey correlated to transit ridership in cities. Firstly, this paper selects ten affecting factors reflecting the service level of public transportation and urban development. Secondly, the paper puts forward an improved grey uniform analysis （IGUA） algorithm which considers the differences in change rate and negative correlation factors. Moreover, the difference degree is defined to determine the length of time series which consid- ers the influence of dimensionless methods on analysis results. Finally, the paper takes Beijing as an example to validate the IGUA. Through the comparison analysis, the effectiveness of the IGUA is proved.