新疆呼图壁河流域径流时序变化特征

Analysis on the characteristics of runoff time series in Hutubi River Basin

依据呼图壁河石门水文站1956—2005年50 a径流量资料,选取多种径流量统计参数,分析流域范围内不同径流补给来源的径流年内分配规律和多年变化特征。结果表明:径流量时序特征与径流的补给来源有密切关系;径流量年内分配极不均匀,集中度高达66.47%;而径流量的多年变化变差系数小,仅为0.15。Kendall秩次检验显示在过去的50年,呼图壁河年径流表现出显著的递增趋势;而不同时间分辨率下的Hurst指数,尤其年径流的Hurst指数为0.8,表明径流具有强劲的持续性趋势,即年径流量在未来变化周期内将表现为持续增加的趋势。

Several runoff statistical parameters, namely concentration ratio, concentration period, variation coefficient, kurtosis, wet-dry transformation ratio etc were analyzed in the paper based on the fifty years＇ annual runoff data in Shimen gauge station of Hutubi River. The result showed that the characteristics of annu- al runoff in Hutubi River had close relations with runoff-supplying sources. The allocation of discharge is extremely uneven, and has a quite high concentration within one year and the concentration ratio is 66.47 %. On the other hand, for many years, variation coefficient of annual discharge has lower value （0.15） and the tendency of annual discharge change is relatively steady. The further analysis based on the Mann-Kendall method showed that the runoff was increased in the last fifty years. The result of R/S analysis （Rescaled Range Analysis） indicated that the runoff changing tendency had strong persistence trend, especially the yearly Hurst index reach to 0.8. That means the runoff will increase in the next period.