我国流动性过剩的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Excess Liquidity in China

本文从货币供求角度对我国流动性过剩问题进行实证分析。首先,通过构建我国广义货币需求模型,对我国广义货币需求量进行拟合,发现从2005年起我国明显出现流动性过剩问题。然后,从货币供求两个方面分析了我国流动性过剩产生的原因,外汇占款快速增长是导致广义货币供给过多的主要原因,而存款利率偏低、预期通货膨胀率提高和资本市场快速发展等都减少了广义货币需求。最后,从货币供求两方面分别提出解决我国流动性过剩的办法,除此之外,还可以有效利用流动性过剩来优化经济结构。

This paper makes an empirical study on the problem of excess liquidity from the aspects of money supply and demand. Firstly, through setting up the broad money demand model of our country to match our broad money demand, it discovers that the obvious excess liquidity has been with us since 2005. Secondly, it analyses the causes of our country＇s excess liquidity from the aspects of money supply and demand. The rapid growth of the position for foreign exchange purchase is the main cause of excess money supply, but the low deposit rate, the rising expectative inflation rate and the rapidly developing capital market reduce the broad money demand. Finally, the paper puts forward the ways to solve the problem of excess liquidity from the aspects of money supply and demand. In addition, we can also effectively make use of excess liquidity to optimize economic structure.