中国人均生态足迹与生物承载力变化的EMD分析及情景预测

Analysis and dynamic prediction of per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China based on empirical mode decomposition method

利用经验模态分解(EMD)方法分解并提取1961～2001年中国人均生态足迹与生物承载力变化的波动周期,建立具有周期性波动的非线性动力学预测模型,提出未来50a中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力变化的3种预测情景。结果表明:(1)40a来,中国人均生态足迹在波动中不断增加,具有明显的3.5a和8a两个波动周期;中国人均生物承载力在波动中不断减少,具有明显的2.7a和28a两个周期。(2)若一切照旧,即未来50a中国人均生态足迹与生物承载力保持过去40a的年均变化率不变,则人均生态足迹会持续上升,2050年达到3.391g.hm2;人均生物承载力持续下降,2050年降为0.490g.hm2;而人均生态赤字急剧拉大,2050年为3.024g.hm2,可持续发展形势非常严峻。(3)若缓慢变化,即未来20a中国人均生态足迹保持年均增长率1.195%、人均生物承载力年均减少率0.614%不变,则2025年人均生态足迹为1.849g.hm2、人均生物承载力为0.860g.hm2、人均赤字0.989g.hm2。(4)若人均生态足迹快速减少,即2025～2050年中国人均生态足迹年均减少率为0.996%、人均生物承载力年均减少率为0.614%不变,则2050年人均生态足迹为1.381g.hm2、人均生物承载力0.739g.hm2、人均生态赤字0.641g.hm2,但这需要中国经济发展和技术水平的极大提高、能源消费结构的多元化、居民消费意识和消费模式的快速转变、人民生活质量的极大改善。这样,中国的生态发展才有助于实现全球水平的生态可持续发展,在促进世界可持续发展的道路上起到积极的推动作用。

The fluctuant cycles of per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China from 1961 to 2001 are decomposed and picked-up based on empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method. Nonlinear dynamic prediction models show that ： 1 ） Over last 40 a, the obvious undulation cycles of per capita ecological footprint （EF） growth in China are 3. 5 a and 8 a, and the periods of per capita biocapacity （BC） growth are 2.7 a and 28 a. 2） The business-as-usual scenario looks at the consequence that per capita EF would be 3. 391 g·hm^2, per capita BC would be 0. 490 g-hm^2, and per capita ecological deficit （ED） would be 3. 024 g. hm^2 in China if their average annual change rates are constant. 3 ） The slow-shift scenario shows per capita EF in China would increase from 1. 395 g·hm^2 in 2001 to 1.84g·hm^2 in 2025 and per capita BC would fall from 0. 9745 g· hm^2 in 2001 to 0. 860 g· hm^2 in 2025 if their average annual change rates are corresponding 1. 195% and 0. 614%. Per capita ED in China would be 0. 989 g·hm^2 in 2025. 4） The rapid-reduce scenario shows per capita EF, BC, and ED in China would fall from 1. 795 g·hm^2, 0. 860 g·hm^2, and 0. 935 g·hm^2 in 2025 to 1. 381 g·hm^2, 0.739 g·hm^2, and 0. 641 g·hm^2 in 2050, respectively. But a hypothesis of this trend is the change of per capita EF and BC in China should keep the same trend of contemporaneous world. Therefore, China could denote sustainability at the global level.