基于Ward聚类法的中国业务集合预报系统的产品开发

Product Development for the Operational Ensemble Prediction System Based on Ward Analysis in China

为开发中国新一代业务集合预报系统的聚类产品,系统地介绍了集合预报技术先进国家的集合预报聚类分析方法,并采用Ward聚类法开发了中国集合预报系统的聚类产品。针对重大天气过程初步分析了中国集合预报系统的聚类产品的业务预报能力。结果表明,Ward聚类法以凝练预报信息和给出发生概率的形式,有效地划分出最有可能出现的环流形势类型,为预报员提供了有价值的预报参考信息,也为科学合理地使用集合预报产品提供方便。

In order to develop the cluster products for Chinese new generation operational Ensem- ble Prediction System （EPS）, the cluster analysis techniques for EPS used in foreign developed country are introduced, and the Ward analysis is applied to interpret the products of Chinese EPS, The case study for operational application capacity of Chinese EPS cluster products indicates that the Ward analysis can classify the circulation situation efficiently, and the cluster products are very helpful and convenient for the weather forecaster to make use of the EPS information.