环境保护中远期规划宏观指标预测方法研究

环境预测模型的应用作为环境预测的一项重要内容,已经越来越得到环境规划决策者的重视。本文通过城市多源模式预测模型、指数平滑模式预测模型、海域平流扩散模式预测模型分别对大气环境SO2、NO2的目标值、区域噪声的目标值和大连湾海域国控点的石油类、无机氮和磷酸盐的目标值进行预测,从而为决策者提供科学的理论依据。

As an important subject, environmental forecasting models have been paid more attention by decision makers of environmental planning. In the paper ,the author applied the models of The Multi-model of City,The Exponential Smoothing Model and The Sea Area Convection- diffusion Model to forecast target value of SO2,NO2, regional noise and petroleum hydrocarbon,inorganic nitrogen ,phosphate in Dalian Bay, in order to provide a theoretical and scientific foundation for decision makers.